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Yeah, the inform is the Greenback Index. If yields had been rising due to “bond vigilantes” the Greenback Index can be decrease. However the Greenback Index has been rising which tells us yields are rising due to greater anticipated financial development (and therefore greater long run charges). https://t.co/OPGekF3L6o pic.twitter.com/Iouhm4ZWS9
— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) October 6, 2023
This “curve is steepening, recession is coming” trope must die.
Sure, the yield curve has instantly steepened earlier than (and through) recessions, BUT as a result of the Fed has reduce charges (which brings the brief finish of the curve down).
Not the identical scenario proper now. pic.twitter.com/54vzXrSm1Z
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 4, 2023
Usually on the finish of Fed tightening cycles, bonds rally.
This time has been completely different: buyers had priced in—and are actually pricing out—a recession with a fast flip in direction of charge cuts https://t.co/eVS4bt42K4 pic.twitter.com/oscOvSQc1D
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 4, 2023
Do Rising Treasury Yields Make Shares unattractive and too costly?
The nominal fairness threat premium evaluating earnings yields to the 10-year treasury yield is at lowest ranges in about 20-years.
But shares are actual belongings… the extra applicable comparability is vs TIPS pic.twitter.com/U0i6AFQxPi
— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) October 5, 2023
TIPS yields surging previous 2.25% for the 10-year this week are offering some ‘actual’ alternate options -but even a 2.4% 10-year TIPS yields takes 30-years to double buying energy.
A 5% earnings yield (and actual return) would double buying energy in ~14 years. pic.twitter.com/NDQHkIrkIK
— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) October 5, 2023
A 3% fairness threat premium vs TIPS is in step with long-term 3% fringe of shares vs bonds from over 200 years of knowledge (by way of Shares for the Lengthy Run).
Each bonds and shares are costly based on 200-year historical past, however each by very comparable quantities. pic.twitter.com/hAva9PiFOc
— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) October 5, 2023
Worth vs development, 3-year annualized returns pic.twitter.com/nfMrNiE5lc
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 10, 2023
First response to jobs numbers: Shock
Second response: Nervousness
Additional reflection: This might be fairly good
336K jobs, participation stays excessive, wage development moderated additional. We might be in the midst of a sustainable improve in labor provide. pic.twitter.com/OskUVo2z9g
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) October 6, 2023
Common hourly earnings rose by 0.2% for a yr/yr charge of 4.2%. Tame wage positive factors relative to measurement of payroll positive factors. pic.twitter.com/DqyOHLsbJD
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) October 6, 2023
Common hourly earnings up 0.2%, +4.2% year-over-year. Lowest 12 month print since June 2021. Positive would not appear like a wage-price spiral.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) October 6, 2023
Fed Struggle has remodeled bond ETFs into money incinerators.. $TLT has come out of nowhere to hit #3 on our Prime 20 Money Burnin’ ETFs listing (lifetime flows minus aum as we speak) w/ over $10b misplaced. Prime of listing was once -2x/-3x, VIX, cmdty ETFs. Now its vanilla bond ETFs by way of @psarofagis pic.twitter.com/kXA77qCfOy
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 9, 2023
We’d return to pre-pandemic housing affordability IF one among these 3 issues occurred…
U.S. incomes spike 55%
U.S. residence costs fall 35%
Mortgage charges fell 4 proportion factors
says Andy Walden at @Black_KnightInc
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) October 4, 2023
If somebody asks you to outline “chutzpah,” you now not must say “like when a man who killed his dad and mom asks for clemency as a result of he is an orphan.”
You’ll be able to say, “like non-public fairness offering loan-shark liquidity to buyers in illiquid PE funds.”https://t.co/PDhrCSSVXd
— Jason Zweig (@jasonzweigwsj) September 29, 2023
🔸 Redfin Survey: 59% of Current Homebuyers Say Buying a Home Is Extra Annoying Than Relationship
Millennials, Gen X Are Most More likely to Assume Homebuying Is Extra Annoying Than Relationship. Child Boomers Are Most More likely to Assume the Reverse.
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 4, 2023
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